Research and Analysis on the development planning

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Research and Analysis on the development planning situation of the fastener industry during the 12th Five Year Plan period

the 12th Five Year Plan period is a critical strategic opportunity for China's fastener industry to grow from a big one to a strong one. During this period, China will enter the late stage of industrialization from the middle stage of industrialization. Its remarkable characteristics are: cost advantage will be gradually challenged, technological advantage potential is huge, the marginal benefits of R & D and scientific and technological investment increase, and capital intensive and technology intensive industries face rapid development opportunities. With the loss of cost advantage and close fitting marketing, technical advantages replace cost advantages in time and occupy a dominant position

the basic parts represented by fasteners are not only the basic industry of China's equipment manufacturing industry, but also the important foundation of all fields of national economic construction. During the "12th Five Year Plan" period, while maintaining some cost advantages, the industry must rely on new advantages such as technological progress, quality improvement and product cost performance to achieve sustainable development. It is estimated that the total output of the whole industry will reach 7508million tons by the end of 2015; Under the overall situation of expanding exports, export products will show a fluctuating growth trend. It is estimated that the annual average export growth rate during the "12th Five Year Plan" period will be 8% - 10%, and the total export volume of the whole industry will reach 30billion yuan by 2015

the domestic market will continue to maintain a good growth trend in the fields of automobile, agricultural machinery, high-speed railway, metallurgy, electric power, engineering machinery and capital construction, which will bring broad market space to the growth of fastener demand

① automobile. It is estimated that by the end of 2015, China's automobile production and sales will both exceed 23million. According to statistics, there are about 500 specifications of fasteners for a light vehicle or passenger car, including 50kg and 400 fasteners; A medium-sized or heavy truck commercial vehicle requires about 7500 fasteners with a mass of 90kg. Calculated by 70kg per vehicle, the annual demand for automotive fasteners is more than 1.5 million tons

② for wind power, the domestic market has a very urgent demand for megawatt wind turbines. The country plans to build a new installed capacity of 70million kW by 2015, and maintain a new speed of not less than 14million kW every year. The demand for high-strength fasteners for wind turbines is calculated based on kw400kg per set, and the annual demand for high-strength fasteners for wind power is more than 500000 tons

③ nuclear power. According to the national medium and long-term plan, BASF will also release a door handle coated with thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) by 2020. China will start the construction of more than 40 million KW nuclear power units. At that time, the total scale of nuclear power will be equivalent to the current 20 Daya Bay nuclear power stations. The annual demand for fasteners for high-strength nuclear power, fasteners of special materials and welding rivets above grade 8.8 is 8 ~ but the profit is higher than 100000 tons

④ agricultural machinery. During the "12th Five Year Plan" period, the total output value of a series of agricultural machinery products such as tractors, rice transplanters and harvesters will reach 250billion yuan. It is estimated that the annual demand for various standard parts and fastening special-shaped parts will be more than 150000 tons, with an output value of about 2billion yuan

⑤ construction machinery. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, the social ownership of construction machinery loaders, excavators, rollers and other series products will reach 6million units, with an annual sales volume of about 50000 units. It is expected that the annual demand for high-strength fasteners will be 20000 ~ 30000 tons

⑥ high speed railway. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, the track laying mileage of high-speed railway, passenger dedicated line and intercity rail transit will increase rapidly. It is estimated that the annual infrastructure investment will reach 300 billion to 400 billion yuan, and the annual demand for high-speed railway fasteners is nearly 300000 tons

⑦ for power, the maintenance and construction of high-voltage and ultra-high voltage transmission towers at all levels, the demand for power fasteners will rise sharply, with an annual demand of nearly 220000 tons

during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, China's fastener industry is facing the historical development opportunity of adjustment and revitalization, from big to strong. The domestic and international market competition is intensifying, and the domestic deep-seated contradictions will inevitably affect the pace of progress of the industry, but the basic force to promote the technological progress and innovative development of the industry is irreversible. The whole industry will achieve stable development with an average annual growth rate of about 15% - 18% in the process of transformation and upgrading

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